I've seen fire and I've seen rain

Fri, 17 Jan 2020

While today's heavy rain is very welcome it can't wash away the devastating impacts of the Australian fires, which will continue to be felt for years to come.

Sydneysiders woke to a strange combination this morning.

On the one hand, steady rain - our first significant fall for weeks, and the heaviest for months.

On the other hand, the distinct smell of damp ash, so strong you could taste it – a reminder of the devastation that lies just out of sight, but certainly not out of mind.

Anyone paying attention to the international news will be aware of the massive fires that have been scorching large parts of the Australian continent in recent weeks.

The current rains aren’t expected to be widespread enough or heavy enough to extinguish all fires, but they should act as a significant circuit breaker in many areas, and provide some respite to the volunteers who have spent weeks working at the fire fronts.

It’s one thing to put numbers against the loss of life and property, quite another to assess the long-term impacts to regional communities and businesses dependent upon farming and tourism for their livelihoods.

Apart from the human and economic impacts, the damage to our unique flora and fauna has been staggering. Vast swathes of once pristine forest have been reduced to stubble and ash. Reputable sources estimate the number of animals killed to exceed one billion.

Our fires certainly haven’t escaped the attention of Orchid’s overseas business partners, many of whom have been reaching out to express their dismay and sympathy.

Fortunately, nobody at Orchid has been directly in the path of the fires, but we certainly know of many who have, and appreciate the concern. We are also aware that many companies and individuals around the world have been making generous contributions the various aid appeals.

A more direct way you can help is simply going ahead with your travel plans.

Contrary to some impressions in the media there are many popular areas entirely unaffected, or where any danger has long passed. Even so, businesses in these areas are suffering from high cancellation rates, reduced forward bookings, and very low patronage during what should be their busiest time of the year.

The Bigger Picture

The recent and ongoing fires have been unprecedented in their number, size, geographical spread and duration. Yes, Australia has always had bushfires: but 2019 is like nothing we've seen before. We've seen fires in regions completely ill-adapted to fire - from subtropical rainforests to alpine regions and Tasmanian plateaus.

They may be entirely unprecedented, but the sad truth is they have not been entirely unanticipated. They come at the end of the hottest, driest year on record in Australia, following years of severe drought. Vast areas of the country were a tinderbox, needing just the right weather conditions and an ignition source – usually ‘dry lightning’ – to light the fuse.

What’s more, these conditions were not so much an anomaly, as the inevitable consequence of a clear, decades long trend. Those experts qualified to make such predictions have seen this coming, but their warnings have too often fallen upon deaf ears.

To quote from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s annual climate statement (also the source of the chart above):

The frequency of extreme heat events has increased approximately five-fold since the 1950s.

Research by the Bureau shows that climate change has contributed to an increased frequency and severity of extreme heat, heatwaves and elevated fire danger.

While the current state of global leadership gives us little cause for optimism, we can only hope that this Australian summer acts as a wake-up call for those in positions of power, both domestically and internationally.

The sad reality is that the vision of many politicians seems to extend no further than the end of current electoral cycle. The consequences of human-induced climate change, when accepted at all, have been regarded as something that will come home to roost at some point well over the political horizon. The dawning realization that the future is arriving fast, and this is what it looks like, might be just what it takes to get their attention.